FuelEU Maritime and

shipping decarbonisation

04/12/2025

Conference ‘FuelEU and Beyond’

Le Havre

European policy

framework for

sustainable

shipping

FuelEU

Maritime

Mandating the uptake

of alternative fuels

Domestic and berth Domestic and berth

International

Simplified WtW CO2e methodology of FEUM

WtT

TtW

Upstream emissions

Fuel combustion (all emissions resulting from the

combustion process itself)

Slippage of fuel that escapes engine without combustion

gCO2/MJ

gCH4/MJ

gN2O/MJ

gCO2e/MJ

gCH4/MJ

WtW gCO2e/MJ 28gCO2e/gCH4

273 gCO2e/gN2O

Fuel EU Maritime

FEUM Reduction

targets

GHG

thresholds

(gCO2e/MJ)

2020

baseline - 91.16

2025-2029 -2% 89.34

2030-2034 -6% 85.69

2035-2039 -14.5% 77.94

2040-2044 -31% 62.90

2045-2049 -62% 34.64

2050+ 80% 18.23

Which fuels does FEUM

incentivise?

T&E | 2023

FuelEU Maritime Optimisation Model

Fuel Mix

(9 available Fuels)

Fleet technology mix:

(fuel Oil, LNG DF, methanol

DF, ammonia DF)

Fuel

Prices

T&E containership optimisation model allows us to look at the impact of different scenarios by forecasting how

operators would minimise costs when faced with different regulatory constraints, incentives, fuel prices or other

factors.

Carbon

(ETS) Price

New Ship

Costs

Fuel EU Maritime

Regulation Inputs

Projected Fuel

Demand

(demand growth + efficiency)

Inputs Outputs

Model Optimiser:

minimise fuel

newbuilding costs

while meeting

regulatory

constraints

T&E | 2023

FuelEU Model: Technologies & Fuels

Model includes 4 vessel technologies, each of which allows operators to use a choice of fuels - focus on

those with most technological potential and available pricing data.

VLSFO VLSFO

Fossil LNG

Fuel Oil

VLSFO

Biodiesel Bio-LNG

e-LNG

Bio-Methanol

e-Methanol e-Ammonia

e-Diesel

VLSFO

LNG DF Methanol

Ammonia

● FuelEU still allows ships to burn

fossil VLSFO & LNG into the

2050s.

● If technically feasible,

e-Ammonia likely to see the

biggest demand from new ships

from 2040 onwards.

● Limited demand for biofuels if

competition from other sectors

and limited scalability result in

higher prices.

● LNG still the main option for early

switching given relatively weak

FEUM targets in the early years.

Base case fuel prices

Base-case + low biodiesel price

● Bio-methanol could make up

over half of EU shipping fuel

demand if prices are sufficiently

low

● Bio-methanol uptake grows

across 2040s, instead of

e-ammonia

● LNG remains primary option for

compliance in 2030s even under

low biofuel pricing.

Additional requirements and

incentives

T&E | 2025

EU multiplier of 2 for green e-fuels

T&E | 2023

Pooled compliance at a company level

T&E | 2023

Policy and commercial considerations

FEUM GHG targets (gCO2e/MJ)

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Baseline

(91.16 CO2e/MJ) -2% -6% -14.5% -31% -62% -80%

FEUM RFNBO multiplier = 2

FEUM RFNBO sub-target (2034 <)

FEUM pooling mechanism

ETS price (€/tonne CO2e) 97 129 189 231

Fleet composition/evolution

Fuel price evolution

(< 2034)

↑ ↓ ↔↑ ↓ ↔↑ ↓ ↔↑ ↓ ↔↑ ↓ ↔↑ ↓ ↔

FEUM SSE mandate (contr. to targets)

Policy recommendations

1 Improve the e-fuel multiplier in FuelEU Maritime.

2 Increase the 2% RFNBO use by 2034 subquota.

3 Add “Made in Europe” requirements for ships refuelling at EU ports.

4 Introduce the 1.2% RFNBO supply target for shipping.

5 Keep the GHG methodology for RFNBO rules untouched.

Thank you

Inesa Ulichina

Shipping Policy Manager

inesa.ulichina@transportenvironment.org